Inventory futures are flat after Tuesday’s rally as merchants await US election outcomes
Election officials count postal ballots at a polling station in the Beloit City Fire Station on November 3, 2020 near Beloit, Wisconsin.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
Stock futures remained unchanged on Tuesday evening after a strong rally during regular trading as investors waited for the result of the presidential election.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were trading 56 points lower, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose slightly. By early evening the Dow futures were up more than 250 points.
President Donald Trump will win the presidential election on NBC News projects in Indiana and Kentucky. Florida was too close to call and Pennsylvania was too early to call, NBC News said. Former Vice President Joe Biden is set to win Vermont, Delaware, Maryland and Massachusetts, according to NBC News. The surveys in Arizona, Colorado, and New York should be completed by 9:00 p.m. CET.
Earlier in the day, the Dow popped more than 500 points, or 2.1%. The S&P 500 was up 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.9%. These gains contributed to Monday’s strong performance.
This week’s market moves come as investors hoped a late or controversial US presidential election result is avoided and a clear winner emerges Tuesday night.
“This recent price surge appears to be a ‘rally of clarity’ as investors look forward to finally clearing up the excess of election uncertainty,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note Tuesday.
Biden was ahead of Trump in the polls before Tuesday. Wall Street is also watching some major Senate races that could result in Democrats taking control of Congress.
Investors are betting that a so-called blue wave – a scenario in which Democrats win the White House, get a Senate majority, and retain control of the house – could ease the passage of new fiscal stimulus as the economy drifts further out of the coronavirus pandemic recovered.
“I think no matter who wins, you have a quick dip and need to buy,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said earlier Tuesday.
According to Baird, the S&P 500 lost an average of 0.4% the day after the presidential election.
Chao Ma of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute believes investors with a longer time horizon shouldn’t worry too much about the impact of the election on the broader market.
“The history of the economy and the S&P 500 Index suggest that a president’s party affiliation made little difference in terms of long-term returns,” said the company’s global portfolio and investment strategist. “The long-term drivers of the S&P 500 index have been economic and business gains, and we expect this will continue after the 2020 elections.”
A year after the presidential election, the S&P 500 achieved an average return of more than 8%, according to Baird in 1960.
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